Are we in a stock market bubble?

This is the worst time to invest in the stock market if you prefer owning underpriced companies. According to Yale economist Robert Shiller, who won the Nobel prize for economics in 2014, the market is way overpriced. Shiller’s price-to-earnings ratio, which measures a stock’s price relative to the last 10 years of the company’s earnings, hit a level not seen since the early 2000s.

This is the still a good time to invest in the stock market if you believe that the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy will overheat the economy, which could spark inflation. I believe that the Fed was responsible for the 2000 tech bubble and the 2008 housing bubble. In both cases, the central bank was slow to recognize that poor fiscal policy would ignite speculative excess. The third time might be the charm.

This week the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. This increase was expected. The real shock came after the meeting when Janet Yellen was speaking to reporters and said that the central bank was willing to tolerate inflation temporarily, overshooting above its 2 percent goal and that it intended to keep its policy accommodative for “some time.” Two percent is a target, she reiterated, not a ceiling. The stock market cheered her change of heart.

Interest rates had already been on an upswing following the election of Donald Trump as president. Prior to the election, 30-year fixed mortgage rates was 3.50% and now it’s at 4.25% (Leaders Bank). U.S. Interest rates would be much higher if overseas rates were not negative. The 2-year German Bund is at -0.81%. Investors are actually willing to lose money not to take risk.

While I’m in full agreement with Schiller’s warnings, I continue to believe that stocks continue to offer the best hedge against inflation. The best way to explain my reasoning is through a few examples. Recently, a client asked whether a 2% CD maturing in 5 years was a good deal. My answer was if the Fed is willing to tolerate inflation above 2% then buying this CD could eventually result in a loss of purchasing power. Another client inquired whether a 4% fixed annuity was a wise choice. It seems like a deal today, but what happens if interest rate rise by 1-2%? The Fed is expected to raise rates by this amount over the next few years. This retiree might be better off waiting and buying corporate or municipal bonds in a few years. This would allow them to keep the principal of their investment rather than donating it to the insurance company.

Please consider your own personal circumstances and risk tolerances before taking advice through a blog. But in the cases for these clients, the answer was clear. At some point, Shiller will eventually be proven correct, but I believe it will be when interest rate and inflation rates are much higher.

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Market Optimists vs. Pessimists

I follow the market outlooks of a select group of investors that oversee billions of dollars at their respective firms. I can’t recall such a divergence of opinions on what’s in store next for the markets.

In the optimist camp, you will find Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase. He says, “President Trump’s economic agenda has ignited US business and consumer confidence and he expects at least some of the administration’s proposals to be enacted. It seems like he’s woken up the animal spirits.” Warren Buffett somewhat agrees and says we are not in bubble territory. Jeffrey Gundlach, known on Wall Street as the “Bond King,” believes inflationary pressures are increasing as well as business confidence, which will translate into a stock market that will “grind higher.” Hedge-fund billionaire David Tepper says it is hard to bet against a rally in stocks that have been underpinned by President Donald Trump’s three-pronged campaign promises of deregulation, tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending.

In the pessimist camp, you will find investment legend Jack Bogle, who has historically been the eternal optimist, but he now believes that the market may be rallying on hopes for economic improvement, but the long-term growth outlook doesn’t look so sunny. He doesn’t feel super confident and that you should expect much lower future returns. An even bigger pessimist is BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink, who is warning that there are dark shadows and risks to this Trump rally. Bob Doll at Nuveen writes that investors may be too optimistic about the political and earnings environments.

There are not many optimists for bonds. Bill Gross says another credit crisis could be just around the corner. Dan Fuss, vice chairman of Loomis Sayles and one of the world’s longest-serving fund managers, is often referred to as “the Warren Buffett of bonds.” He is more cautious on bonds than any other time since the 1970s, as political uncertainties cloud an otherwise solid economic outlook.

Who is going to be correct?

Warren Buffett, of course. Why? He has built his fortune so that his wealth will compound no matter what the economic backdrop or whichever president is in office. He doesn’t believe Trump will make America great again because he has made a fortune already betting that America is great. When a reporter asked whether he believed America needed to be made great again, Buffett nearly jumped out of his chair: “We are great! We are great!”

His portfolio is diversified across businesses, stocks, farmland, preferred bonds, fixed income securities, and cash. He maintains an emergency fund of 20% in cash, and concentrates on companies that pay him dividends through free cash flows and not debt. If the pessimists are correct, he will not be impacted as much because he has cash to buy the dip. He actually made much of his fortune while the pessimists were patting themselves on their backs. If the optimists are correct, his portfolio will continue to grow through dividends, inflation, and earnings growth.

While these legendary investors have divergent views on stocks, they have all been warning on the overvaluation in bonds. The 10-year Treasury yields rose 9 straight days, which was the longest streak of losses since April 1974.

Your guess is as good as mine if this trend continues or if the optimists will be ultimately be proven correct. While I listen to the wide range of opinions of these investment guru’s, I believe that Buffett’s timeless advice applies to any market – diversify in companies that have competitive advantages with low debt, high dividends, buybacks, and high cash balances. This is how I’m helping my clients manage their wealth in this high risk and high return market.

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La La Land

President Trump’s well received speech to Congress released the animal spirits not seen in markets for some time. The very next day, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) had inflows of $8.2 billion – the biggest daily inflow since Dec 2014 and the second largest in 6 years. Those investors that suddenly realized during this speech that Trump was going to be a pro-business president, are in la-la land.

This monster rally, which started immediately after the election, has already been one of the strongest on record. Even before the la-la land investors decided to jump on the train, the Dow Jones Industrial Average matched its longest streak of records ever in 12 days. In the 120-year history of the Dow, this streak only happened twice.

I believe that much of this rally is justified. We are in the midst of an economic boom and money is still cheap. Regulations are getting slashed. Corporate tax rates are expected to fall, and consumer confidence is at its highest level since 2001. My main concern is that la-la land investors are now chasing passively managed index funds to save on costs, and are forgetting all about risk. There is now much more focus on the investment expense than on the value of the investment.

This week Warren Buffett suggested that the stock market is undervalued. His caveat was because interest rates are so low. I couldn’t agree with him more that the biggest risk to stocks is rising interest rates. I have remained bullish for my clients in anticipation that growth was going to pick up and that inflation would follow. I’ve continued to have clients positioned in stocks and have kept my bond allocation low, even for retirees. As the Fed raises interest rates, stocks will begin to look less appealing.

Buffett’s second point was that investors should keep investment expenses low. I also couldn’t agree with him more. I take pride in having much lower fees relative to my peers. Buffett’s argument is really against hedge funds that typically charge 2% annually and also take 20% of profits. He recommends that investors who don’t have time to analyze investments should just buy the S&P 500 index. Buffett, on the other hand, would never buy the S&P 500 index. He hired two money managers to provide him with investment advice. He cares much more about buying at the right price than paying the lowest expense. Similar to our billionaire president, you have to watch what they do, and not what they say. Warren Buffett and President Trump didn’t become the richest people on the planet by following crowds.

The record breaking year is now largely being driven by la-la land investors that are blindly buying the S&P 500 index. Just ask Vanguard Funds. Vanguard brought in $323 billion in new money in 2016. They brought in another $50 billion in January 2017. I would bet that February had even larger inflows than January. Almost all the other large mutual fund companies had negative outflows in 2016! Most are losing billions and outflows have only been getting worse.

If this trend continues, we might find ourselves in a stock market bubble caused by la-la land passive investors focused on buying the same investment regardless of the price they pay. What will happen when these low-cost Vanguard investors decide to sell the same investment just as fast as they bought?

I can assure you that Warren Buffett won’t care because he understands the value of the investment that he holds. Moreover, he will be getting advice from his two money managers. Over at Vanguard, many passive index investors might eventually be in a panic as they have focused solely on buying the lowest cost investment. In the end, La La Land didn’t win for Best Picture. The same will eventually hold true for those investors that will be in for their own big surprise when they realize too late that diversifying into the right investments matters much more than paying the lowest expense.

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News conferences

There were three high profile, noteworthy news conferences this week. The first meeting was Janet Yellen’s televised testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. It was no surprise to learn from her that she is going to raise interest rates this year. Yellen said, responding to a question about what is behind the markets’ meltup. “I think market participants likely are anticipating shifts in fiscal policy that will stimulate growth and perhaps raise earnings.”

On Thursday, Donald Trump attempted to set the record directly to the American people on why the “fake” news media is spreading lies about his administration. Outside the pure entertainment value, there wasn’t much learned from this press conference. The third meeting offered much more insight.

Warren Buffett’s right-hand man, Vice-Chairman Charlie Munger of Berkshire Hathaway, spoke at the annual Daily Journal Corporation. There were three takeaways that helped to reinforce my view on the markets. They are as follows:

  1. There are no more cheap companies and it’s become impossible to make large returns. The investment world is much more difficult.
  2. Beating the index is absolute agony for investment professionals who have almost no chance of beating it.
  3. You need to adapt your investment strategy to what offers you the best chance of investment success.

A decade ago when the P/E of the market was 10, and value stocks dominated the index, it was much easier to buy growth companies in order to beat the market. Currently, 4 of the top 8 holdings of the S&P 500 are the leading technology companies – Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook. To beat the benchmark on the upside, you must now take more risk than even the fastest growing companies that have huge free cash flow and recurring revenue. Good Luck!

Even Charlie and Warren have recognized that they can’t beat the index. They also used to think that the airline industry was a “joke,” and in the last few months they bought billions of dollar’s worth of airline stocks. For decades, they avoided technology companies because it wasn’t within their circle of competence, and now they own over $7 billion worth of Apple. They also became large shareholders in IBM a few years ago. Charlie, now 93 years old, was asked about the sudden change in philosophy, and he explained how he and Buffett have changed with age. “Warren learned better over time, I’ve learned better. The nice thing about the game we’re in is you can keep learning, and we’re still doing it.”

The reason why Charlie and Warren don’t take their own advice and buy the benchmark is that they don’t want the loss potential of the benchmark. If Charlie and Warren are wrong on their investments, they want money returned to them through the free-cash flow that a company generates in the form of dividends and buybacks. This helps to limit the overall chance of permanent capital destruction. Warren’s two rules of investing are, “Rule No. 1: Never Lose Money. Rule No. 2: Never Forget Rule No. 1.”

I help my clients with point #3. My strategy includes continuously adapting my investment strategy that offers the best chance of investment success.

My next post with be on March 4th. Have a great long weekend in celebration of President’s Day!

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Where did all the volatility go?

The CEO of Goldman Sachs, Lloyd Blankfein, had a very good quote this week that he told his clients. He said. “It’s always uncertain when you’re living in it and so simple and sure when you’re looking back.”

In this uncertain market, many investors expected a much more volatile market. Most 2017 market outlooks predicted a volatile market this year. I even anticipated a bumpier ride. But the exact opposite has occurred. The markets have now gone 42 trading days without a 1% move. This has broken a 40-year record! The CBOE’s Volatility Index, also known as the VIX and commonly referred to as the “fear index,” is at a decade low.

The volatility is so low that many seasoned traders are getting nervous. The thinking goes if markets go to one extreme, it will only be a matter of time before the pendulum swings the other way.

The textbook definition of risk in investing is called standard deviation. Standard deviation measures market volatility, and the wider the range, the greater the risk. Today’s measure of risk would show a market that is not very risky. If markets were moving outside of the 1% range, standard deviation would be high. Stocks would be considered riskier and there would be a greater potential for gain as well as loss. In 2008, when stocks were down more than 50%, standard deviation was high, and stocks would be viewed as extremely risky. This also proved to be wildly incorrect as stocks were the buy of a lifetime.

This standard deviation measure of risk is flawed because markets do not follow a pattern of a normal distribution. Rather returns are not normal, but skewed, and have fatter tails. The fat tails indicate that there is a probability, which may be small, that an investment can lose a great deal of money fast.

The investment industry has moved towards investing clients in model portfolios using exchange-trade funds (ETFs) and low-cost mutual funds. Model portfolio’s, which are constructed using standard deviation, in my view, use the wrong measure of risk. Standard deviation is falsely showing much less risk in portfolios. The correct measure of risk is based on fundamental analysis and valuation. This measure of calculating the intrinsic value of a company is implying a very rich market.

The 40-year record just broken without a 1% move, might be the sign, and be so simple looking back, that everyone piling their money into the same low cost ETFs, regardless of the price they pay, was the biggest risk for markets in the last 40 years.

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The Next Big Idea

I’m continuously evaluating potential market risks that can derail the market. I’m also always searching for new investment opportunities and the next big idea. There is one new technology that will have an enormous impact on the economy. My father just purchased a new car and he can’t stop talking about all the high-tech features. He is most excited about the driver-assist technology such as lane-assist features, and the adaptive cruise control that maintains a steady distance from the car in front of him. This is the next big idea. It’s not marijuana penny stocks. I’ve had many people looking for marijuana stock ideas, but I’ve found more companies that I’d like to bet against. I’m sure that there might be one or two big winners, but good luck finding them in the weeds.

The computer has evolved from your desktop, to your phone, and is now going into your car. The autonomous vehicle technology is going to change the automotive industry and disrupt transportation industries for years to come. Similar to the iPhone, which reshaped the telecom industry, I expect autopilot to have a substantial impact on the automotive industry. All the major technology companies are spending massive amounts of money to develop their own version of an autopilot system. Even self-driving trucks will become common on roadways. According to estimates by the American Trucking Association, there are approximately 3.5 million professional truck drivers in the United States. While these jobs are not currently at risk, there could come a time when this once stable industry is disrupted.

There is much debate over how safe these driverless cars are. The U.S. crash investigation into Tesla’s driver-assistance autopilot ended up suggesting that the feature actually increases safety. According to the data that Tesla provided investigators and data from a Bloomberg article, “installing Autopilot prevents crashes—by an astonishing 40 percent.” The group of people that this technology will benefit the most, are the elderly or people with physical disabilities. Florida’s roadways might one day be filled with more self-driving cars than actual real drivers.

There have already been many winning investments in this area. To name a few, companies such as Google, Tesla, STMicroelectronics, NXP Semiconductors, Apple, Nvidia, Mobileye, Delphi Automotive, Bosche, Tesla, Nissan Mercedes-Benz, Uber and Audi are the current leaders creating prototype vehicles. For select companies, investors are willing to look past quarterly earning misses and are focusing more on the potential for future market share.

I’ve been researching the companies with the most cutting-edge technologies. Even though we are still in the early infancy of developing this technology, many of these companies are already trading at rich valuations. As a value investor, I prefer to buy investments at a much lower price. If we get a market sell-off, this is one area that is at the top of my shopping list for my clients who have a higher risk tolerance.

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Top Investment Opportunity in 2017

Happy New Year! Get ready for another volatile year. It has now become common that market moving information is broadcasted instantaneous through social media. Reality TV is being played out from the White House. The White House will become a virtual office with locations in New York, Washington, and Florida.

Self-driving cars, virtual reality, automation, and IBM’s Watson are at the cutting edge of technology. My top investment opportunity for 2017 is artificial intelligence (AI). AL could be as disruptive as the internet was 20 years ago. All the major technology companies are working to advance AI. The first mover advantage goes to Apple, Microsoft, IBM, Google, Amazon, Netflix, Nvidia, Tesla, and Facebook. There are more than 140 other private companies hoping to be acquired by these leaders.

The most popular Christmas gifts in 2016 leveraged AI. Amazon’s Alexa and Apple’s Siri assistant are only at the beginning stages of AI. If you are an active user on Facebook, it probably knows more about you than your own family. It stores all your browsing history and builds a profile about your personal life. The accuracy of this data would shock you. According to a recent article in Fortune, “they are building an internal platform to harness artificial intelligence so it can deliver exactly the content you want to see.”  The direction of this country is forever changed by social media. If you want to know a valid reason why Donald Trump upset Hillary Clinton, read this story on how Trump’s campaign leveraged Facebook.

President Trump’s challenge over the next 4 years will be how to prevent Silicon Valley from automating the workforce and slowing AI. There will be more jobs lost to AI than by Mexico or China. AI machines will eventually surpass human performance. If you want your child or grandchild to graduate with a comfortable six figure job, give them the advice that building app’s and software development are the hottest industries.

On Thursday, Macy’s announced 10,000 job cuts and a reduction of 68 stores. The success of Amazon and other online retailers is not slowing. Advances in AI will make consumers even more dependent on technology. President Trump has taken credit over Twitter for having saved a few hundred factory jobs, but he has no power to stop the ongoing disruption that technology is creating in every corner of the economy.

The investments that I continue to avoid are those that are losing market share to AI and workflow automation. For those businesses that fail to adapt to AI, they will likely suffer the same fate as Macy’s. Over the coming years, there will be many rewarding investment opportunities in innovative companies that are harnessing the power of AI.

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A Year Full of Surprises

I would like to thank all of my clients for the trust that they have placed in me this year to manage their investments.  Before I review 2016, and make my market predictions for 2017, I wanted to wish you and your family a Happy Holiday. This will be my last post of the year. I promise that next year I will continue to probe for potential market risks, as well as seek out new investments that can help you meet your goals. It would be very satisfying to repeat the 2016 return next year!

2016 will go down as a year full of surprises. Merriam-Webster best encapsulates 2016 with their Word of the Year, ‘Surreal’.  Here are a few of this years biggest surprises:

  • The U.S. stock market had the worst start ever to begin the year, only to finish with one of the biggest rallies.
  • Oil fell to as low as $26 a barrel only to rebound 100% to $52 a barrel.
  • The gold bulls drove up prices 25% in the first part of the year, and then prices collapsed 17% in the second half of the year.
  • The political surprises began on June 23rd when Britain voted to leave the European Union, which was one-upped by American voters, electing an anti-establishment president.
  • On July 8th, the 10-year Treasury fell to an all-time low of 1.38%, and has now nearly doubled to 2.60%.
  • And don’t forget the Cubs won the World Series!

I’ll leave my market predictions for 2017 to the prognosticators who make a living out of predicting the future. Nobody could have predicted all of the “surreal” events that occurred in 2016. Larry Fink, who has been named one of the “World’s Best CEO’s” by Barron’s for nine consecutive years, said on CNBC yesterday that retirees should own more equities and less bonds. About one year ago, he was predicting a further 10% drop in equities after stocks had already fallen 10%. I’m positive that he would not have given that same advice last year! Mohamed El-Erian, who some consider the world’s best economist, is warning investors to raise more cash. His interview on Bloomberg TV the other day was very ominous. The only problem is that he has been giving the same warnings all year that investors should hold more cash. I expect him to double down on his warnings to hold cash. I would bet the house that at some point he will get it very right. Timing the correction is the difficult part. If these two market experts can’t make accurate predictions, then their guesses are as good as mine.

While I avoid making market predictions, I monitor for potential market risks. Here are five warning signs that the market is fully valued heading into 2017:

  1. There are more positive leading indicators flashing green than I can remember. Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index is at another new high in its nine-year trend. You will find many more buying opportunities when confidence is near lows and not at all-time highs.
  2. TrimTabs, which reports market inflows and outflows, showed that the market inflows since Election Day is equal to 1.5X of all the inflows in 2015. The CEO was quoted as saying, “One has to wonder who’s left to buy.”
  3. Rising stock prices have become unhinged from corporate earnings, which haven’t risen as fast. Those that buy stocks with high P/E ratios are betting that future earnings will eventually catch-up to current prices.
  4. TimTabs has noted that buybacks have tumbled to the lowest level in 5 years and insider buying is at the lowest level since 2011.
  5. The Chinese economy is under pressure from a large debt burden. President elect-Trump’s campaign promise to bring jobs back to the U.S. is very negative for China.  He has proven to be a very effective campaigner and has no problem tarnishing his opponents to gain the advantage. He is a master deal-maker and his cabinet/advisors are also full of successful deal-makers. The early signs are that he is not going to play nice with China.

Optimism around Trump’s agenda is the major reason why the stock market has surged and keeps hitting record high after record high. U.S. business leaders are getting behind him 100% to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.. Profits will rise if Trump can accomplish his aggressive agenda. However, the risks that I noted above are warning signs that markets will remain volatile.

I wish you and your family a healthy and prosperous 2017!

What stage of the Economic Cycle are we in?

On Thursday, the Massachusetts unemployment rate dropped to 2.9%, which is the lowest level since January 2001. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is flirting with going over 20,000, inflation is picking up, interest rates are rising, property prices are near highs, and commodity prices are jumping. We have entered the late upswing stage of the economic cycle. The recovery stage was between 2009-2011, and the early upswing stage occurred between 2012-2015.

The late upswing stage will end when bond yields stop rising, the stock market starts falling, home prices fall, and consumer confidence drops. The different stages of the economic cycle tend to be gradual and go on longer than people expect.

A good example to show how long economic stages can last is the case of the stubborn property seller. The level of housing supply is still tight and there are more people shopping for a home. As interest rates rise, monthly payments will also rise. Higher mortgage rates will result in many new home buyers unable to afford overvalued prices. It’s the affordability or monthly payment that matters the most. As interest rates rise, houses will sit on the market longer until sellers adjust their prices lower. It can take 12-18 months before the seller begins to adjust their prices lower. If we enter the recession stage, when job losses are high, home prices can drop dramatically. As we all know, the housing crash in 2008 was only so damaging because prices became overvalued.

Over the next few years, I expect higher market swings, because our President-elect wants to add more stimulus during the late upswing stage of the economic cycle. Cutting taxes, rolling back regulations, creating jobs, and adding infrastructure normally occurs in the early recovery stage. The result of this mistimed stimulus will be higher inflation, record breaking corporate profits, rising wage growth, and higher interest rates.

My favorite economist is David Rosenberg, and he appeared on CNBC with a warning about the extreme values in stock prices. His market worries include the strong dollar crimping profits, mortgage rates rising, and overblown expectations that Trump can achieve all of his ambitious goals. In his view, markets are pricing in above average earnings growth next year, and market sentiment is too high. In 2017, he expects more acute volatility with wider price fluctuations. In his words, active management should “trump” a more passive approach. I agree with his sentiment that to be profitable in 2017, you should be willing to trade the market a lot more than you have in the past.

Since the election, the trading for all of my clients has picked up, as I have taken advantage of new opportunities. The small trading costs have been worth the higher gains in portfolios over the past few months. My belief is that the late upswing stage will go on longer than people expect, but it will be a bumpy ride. The recession stage could come sooner than expected if President elect-Trump upsets trading partners, or if he fails to meet his own very high expectations.

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Advisory services offered through Constant Guidance Financial LLC, a registered investment

November Review and December Outlook

November 2016 Review

November will go down as a epic story of two markets. Major bond indices lost around 3.5% and the S&P 500 gained 3.68%. If you own a balanced portfolio, you most likely made no money. Even worse, the SPDR Gold Shares dropped -8.36% and the iShares Europe ETF fell -2.49%. This month had one of the largest monthly discrepancies between growth and value stocks. The Vanguard Growth Index was up only 1.22%, while the Vanguard Value Index was up 6%. The best investment area was the iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF, which finished up 13.17%.

The U.S. economy is back to pre-Great Recession levels:

December 2016 Outlook

Brace yourself for a bumpy ride. Like almost all elected officials, President-elect Trump has shown signs of making contradictory statements between what he promised on the campaign trail and how he will govern. This is no surprise to even the most devoted Trump supporters. The epic story of two markets might prove to be premature as investors begin to realize that fiscal policy takes long to implement. The impact of infrastructure spending is years away and the tax cuts are still being debated.

Over the short-term, investors do a terrible job of predicting possible economic recessions, interest rates, and inflation rates. It’s not much different than how the pollsters and major media outlets got the results of the election so wrong. The Trump-led administration is not going to be able to accomplish everything it has promised. Yes, there will be a roll-back of regulations, changes made to trade agreements, lower taxes, changes to Obamacare, and more infrastructure spending. However, all the important details are still missing.

There is much apprehension over Trump’s protectionist agenda. Since the election, technology stocks and multi-national stocks have trailed the market as their supply and distribution chains are global. Many of the largest U.S. companies, which employ millions of U.S. jobs, derive much of their profits overseas. Since Trump cares more than anything about creating U.S. jobs, I believe that much of Trump’s trade threats are a ploy to secure future concessions from foreign governments. Trump’s strength is in the art of negotiation and deal-making.

There will be profound long-term consequences if I’m wrong and whether Trump takes a more protectionism route. Nobody will win if Trump increases tariffs and starts trade wars. Going forward, I expect a war of words rather than actual foreign policy changes, which will make for a volatile market.

Please read our disclosure statement regarding the contents of this post and our website as a whole.

Advisory services offered through Constant Guidance Financial LLC, a registered investment